The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict :

 Analysing Centuries of Rivalry and Modern Geopolitical Dynamics

In the rough terrain of the Caucasus Mountains, Armenia and Azerbaijan have a rich and intertwined history shaped by centuries of imperial goals and cultural interactions. This region has been a historical crossroads where Russian, Byzantine, and Persian empires once clashed. Over time, Armenians and Azerbaijanis have developed unique identities, deeply rooted in their heritage and a profound connection to the land they call home.

However, this shared home for Armenians and Azerbaijanis has also become a place of rivalry and conflicts. Both countries were part of the same entity, the Soviet Union. But after the fall of the Soviet Union and the subsequent independence of Armenia and Azerbaijan, animosity erupted between the two countries. This rivalry has become a genetic legacy, passed down through generations and keeping the hostility alive. Let's delve deep into this topic and understand the reasons for this enduring hostility.

Even when Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the Soviet Union, they had many distinct features, the major one being cultural identities. To understand this, let's go back to the 20th century. During the Russian Empire's rule, a region between Armenia and Azerbaijan known as Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians but located within the borders of Azerbaijan, became a focal point of contention. Historical claims and demographic shifts with cultural identities further complicated territorial disputes.

During the Soviet era, Joseph Stalin's policies played a significant role in worsening the tensions. The decision to place Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan despite its Armenian majority was a deliberate strategy to maintain control over ethnic groups and prevent nationalist movements. As the Soviet Union started weakening in the 1980s, nationalist sentiments surged across the country. In 1988, Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians demanded to merge with Armenia, triggering protests and later violent clashes. The breakdown of Soviet authority released pent-up historical grievances and territorial ambitions, setting the stage for a protracted conflict.

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence. This period saw the rise of nationalism, further fueling tensions over disputed territories like Nagorno-Karabakh, which escalated into a full-scale war marked by ethnic cleansing, mass displacement, and atrocities on both sides. The conflict drew in regional powers and devastated communities, leaving scars that remain fresh to this day. After years of bloodshed, a ceasefire brokered in 1994 halted major hostilities, but the damage was already done. Tensions simmered beneath the surface, periodically erupting in border skirmishes.

In September 2020, decades-old scars reopened with renewed bloodshed, escalating into a full-fledged war. Azerbaijan launched a military offensive to reclaim territory it lost in the 1990s, supported by Turkish military aid. The conflict was more advanced and devastating this time, with cities bombed and civilian casualties mounting. The international community, hesitant to intervene directly, called for an immediate ceasefire and dialogue. Efforts led by Russia, France, and the United States sought to mediate a resolution, but deep-rooted mistrust and animosity hindered progress. Nevertheless, on November 10, 2020, a ceasefire agreement was signed with the direct intervention of CSTO member Russia, deploying 2,000 troops as peacekeepers on the Lachin corridor connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, with a mandate of at least five years.

Analysing the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, it became evident to Armenia that the CSTO was not effective in stopping Azerbaijan’s attacks. In a bid to find more reliable allies, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sought partnerships around the globe. His meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, followed by the signing of several defense deals, indicate that France and India may play larger roles in the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

The history of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is a tragic tale of ancient grudges and geopolitical rivalries. From historical grievances to modern-day hostilities, the struggle for peace and stability continues to shape the region's future. As the world watches, the lessons of the past underscore the urgent need for diplomacy and sustained efforts toward lasting peace. The path forward will require concerted efforts from regional and global powers to mediate and support a peaceful resolution, ensuring that the scars of the past do not dictate the future.